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Recent quarterly reports from DraftKings, Flutter Entertainment and others offer a view into prediction markets businesses and their performance. View More

In this articleCOINHOODFLUTDKNGFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT Budrul Chukrut | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images The latest quarterly earnings reports from FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment, DraftKings and others shone a spotlight on the burgeoning prediction markets industry.A growing number of companies are introducing their own prediction market platforms or launching partnerships within the space, said Joel Shulman, the CEO of investment firm Entrepreneur Shares. As competition continues to grow, the latest earnings reports offer a glimpse at how much companies are willing to bet on its prediction platforms. DraftKings' platform grows 'faster than expected' DraftKings' CEO Jason Robins said the company's prediction market platform is growing at a booming pace, having launched in December 2025."We had over 600,000 customers so far engaged with our predictions offering, and that's just going to explode this NFL season. I'm expecting millions, so we're excited about it," Robins told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday. Annualized total volume for DraftKings' predictions platform grew to $11 billion from $2.3 billion between April and July, Robins said on the company's earnings call Friday morning.He added that other prediction markets have not disturbed DratftKings' business because it caters to a different audience. "We continue to see only about 1% customer overlap between our sportsbook and the largest prediction market operator in sportsbook states, which tells us these platforms are driving a fundamentally different and largely professional audience," he said. DraftKing's internal data estimates 80% to 90% of prediction market consumer volume comes from betting syndicates and institutional traders, Robins said during the call.Owning three key layers of prediction markets — brokerage, exchange and market maker — gives the company an edge against its competitors, Robins added. DraftKings' second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $114.6 million and revenue of $1.44 billion fell short of the FactSet consensus call for $156.1 million in EBITDA and $1.51 billion in revenue. FanDuel Predicts moves on from CME Shares of Flutter closed down more than 11% on Wednesday after the online sports betting and iGaming operator announced that Dan Taylor, CEO of Flutter's international division, would replace Peter Jackson at the helm of the company. Second quarter earnings reported that day also fell short of Wall Street's estimates.In addition, Flutter said on Wednesday it would move its FanDuel Predicts sports and novelty contracts from CME to Crypto.com. CME will continue to provide financial market contracts, the company said. Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images "This new exchange arrangement will ensure we can deliver new products at pace ahead of the NFL season start," Jackson said on the company's earnings call. The operator first launched FanDuel Predicts with CME in December 2025, just a few months after volume for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket soared. Regulation is also top of mind for Flutter as Kalshi and Polymarket have been subject to scrutiny from state regulators arguing the companies are operating illegal gambling platforms. More than 40 state attorneys general have also pushed back on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's assertion that it's the exclusive regulator of sports-related event contracts.Jackson said that FanDuel Predicts has a smoother pathway operating in states. "Our own prediction market offering FanDuel Predicts allows us to acquire customers ahead of sports betting regulation in new states," he said on the call. Flutter posted second quarter adjusted earnings of 49 cents per share on revenue of $4.33 billion, versus the FactSet consensus call for 54 cents per share and $4.23 billion. It expects to generate about $50 million in market-making revenue this year.  Coinbase signals prediction market growth Crypto exchange platform operator Coinbase said in late July that its prediction markets revenue grew 106% on a quarter over quarter basis, and that annualized revenue from this business in the second quarter surpassed $100 million.Some analysts were not impressed by those numbers."Prediction markets run rate of $100M+ in 2Q was below our estimate," KeyBanc analysts wrote in a report after Coinbase posted quarterly results. Timon Schneider | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images Coinbase reported disappointing results for the second quarter, posting a wider-than-anticipated loss of $1.36 per share, versus the 17-cent loss per share analysts polled by LSEG had sought. Revenue also fell short of expectations, coming in at $1.2 billion versus the $1.3 billion forecast. Robinhood's Rothera rollout Robinhood launched Rothera in June, an exchange that's licensed with the CFTC and managed through the brokerage's joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. In its second quarter report, Robinhood said that over 3.5 billion contracts had been traded to date.Event contracts revenue came in at $156 million in the second quarter, according to Robinhood."In less than two months since launch, we took approximately 7-8% of total market share among CFTC-regulated venues and roughly 30% average market share compared with the largest market in the specific contracts we listed," Rothera's founders Tom Chippas and Matt Trudeau wrote in a LinkedIn post on Aug. 4. The founders also highlighted the volume numbers as "evidence" that its "technology and operations can perform under sustained pressure at significant scale."Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Nonfarm payrolls were projected to increase by 83,000 in July while the unemployment rate would hold steady at 4.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. View More

watch nowVIDEO3:4803:48U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in JulySquawk Box The U.S. economy saw an unexpected declined in jobs during July while the unemployment rate edged lower, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday in a snapshot that showed a slowing employment picture.Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month, compared with a downwardly revised 20,000 for June. The Dow Jones consensus forecast had been looking for a gain of 83,000.At the same time, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell further to 61.4%, its lowest in more than five years, another indication that fewer Americans were working or looking for jobs. (function(){function e(){window.addEventListener(`message`,function(e){if(e.data[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.data[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.style.height=a}}})}e()})(); In addition to the weak numbers for June and July, the final count for May was revised down to 63,000, or 66,000 lower than the prior estimate. The revised numbers brought the 12-month average down to just 34,000."The July employment report solidified that the labor market is not out of the woods quite yet," said Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter.The drop was led by a 50,000 decline in local government education and a loss of 19,000 retail jobs. Financial activities also posted a fall of 14,000 and leisure and hospitality lost 40,000, a possible consequence of the World Cup tournament ending.Healthcare, which has been the leading sector for job creation, rose by 22,000, which was below its 12-month average of 36,000. Construction also saw an increase of 22,000. Private payrolls did increase for the month, up 30,000 as government jobs declined by 53,000.While jobs held flat, worker pay also saw virtually no gain during the month. Average hourly earnings increased by just 2 cents, bringing the 12-month average down to 3.2%, below the forecast increase of 3.5% and the lowest since May 2021. (function(){function e(){window.addEventListener(`message`,function(e){if(e.data[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.data[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.style.height=a}}})}e()})(); The report comes with Federal Reserve policymakers split on where interest rates should head in an economy where the labor market had been improving from a moribund year in 2025 while inflation has remained well above the central bank's 2% target.In recent days, several Fed officials have spoken in favor of raising rates as soon as September if the pace of price increases doesn't ease. The Federal Open Market Committee last week voted 9-3 to hold its benchmark rate in place.Following the jobs report, traders shifted their bets on when the Fed might hike. Odds for a move in September fell to 44% and to 58.3% for October, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge of futures prices.Stock market futures, meanwhile, posted solid gains amid the expectations for a more dovish Fed. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up close to 200 points and Treasury yields plummeted after being around the flatline earlier in the session."This morning's report is a game changer in the sense that all of the recent focus has been on inflation and this report highlights the risks that are embedded in the labor market as well," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management. "Before today, many were expecting that the Fed had no choice but to raise rates in order to fight stubbornly high inflation, because the job market was so strong, but this report shows that isn't the case."Details of the report confirmed the weak headline numbers. Household employment, which measures the total of people reporting that they are working and is used to calculate the unemployment rate, fell by 87,000. However, the unemployment rate declined because of a decrease of 264,000 in the labor force. Outside of the Covid era, the participation rate is at its lowest since the middle part of 1976."While the unemployment rate is falling, that is mostly for the wrong reason—not enough workers," wrote Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. "Immigration compensated for the aging of the workforce in the first few years of the post-pandemic expansion, but that's not happening anymore."The employment-to-population ratio fell again, slipping to 58.9% for its lowest level since May 2014. An alternative jobless measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.9%. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Trump aide Dan Scavino told Cook there is "sufficient reason to believe that you made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements." View More

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook participates in a board meeting at the Federal Reserve on March 19, 2026 in Washington, DC.Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images President Donald Trump is "considering" firing Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, the White House said this week, reviving an effort that had been stymied by the Supreme Court in June.White House presidential aide Dan Scavino, in a letter to Cook dated Wednesday, said there is "sufficient reason to believe that you made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements."Those are the same allegations Trump and his allies floated when he first moved to fire Cook from the central bank last year. Cook denied the charges and filed a lawsuit challenging her dismissal. A federal court blocked Trump from firing Cook while her suit was pending. The Supreme Court, in a 5-4 ruling in late June, upheld that decision against a challenge the president. But Chief Justice John Roberts noted that the court's decision did not stop Trump from trying again to remove Cook over the mortgage fraud allegations. Any new attempt to fire her would require additional steps in order to protect Cook's Constitutional due process rights, Roberts wrote.Scavino, Trump's deputy chief of staff and director of the Office of Presidential Personnel, wrote that he was sending Wednesday's letter "pursuant to the Supreme Court's opinion."He instructed Cook to provide an "explanation for your false statements and accompanying evidence" within three weeks.Abbe Lowell, a lawyer for Cook, told CNBC in a statement that the allegations "are as baseless now as they were a year ago when President Trump tried to remove Governor Cook and interfere with the independence of the Federal Reserve.""No matter what President Trump tries to do next, this much is clear under the facts and Supreme Court precedent — there is no valid cause for removing Governor Cook," Lowell's statement said. "As we did before, we will challenge this latest pretext and preserve her position and the historic role of the Fed."The Federal Reserve declined to comment on the White House's letter.Trump's initial move to fire Cook, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden, came as he ramped up his efforts to pressure the Fed to slash interest rates.The mortgage-related allegations were surfaced by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who has been criticized as an "attack dog" for Trump.Pulte has also targeted other of Trump's perceived political foes, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, who also faced allegations of mortgage-related wrongdoing.— CNBC's Dan Mangan and Jeff Cox contributed to this report. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

As oil reserves and munitions stockpiles reportedly dwindle, analysts wonder how much longer markets will pounce when the Trump admin. dangles an Iran deal. View More

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House on Aug. 6, 2026 in Washington, DC.Alex Wong | Getty Images The Trump administration this week sparked enthusiasm that the U.S. and Iran could soon strike a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, driving down oil prices and sending stocks soaring — only for no deal to emerge.If that sounds familiar, it may be because President Donald Trump has claimed dozens of times that the U.S. is close to an agreement that will end the war it began more than five months ago.Investors have reacted to many of those claims with bursts of buying on hopes a breakthrough is near, even as the war instead appears to be widening and progress on Trump's chief stated goal — containing Iran's nuclear ambitions — is at a standstill."There's tremendous optimism bias in the market," Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.Markets continue to assume incentives for both the U.S. and Iran favor a diplomatic end to the war. But some investors seem to "see a deal as a time machine" that will reset the Middle East to its prewar status quo, even though that's unlikely to happen, Croft said.The conflict of late centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for the global oil trade that has became a source of major leverage for Iran.Tehran's ability to effectively close the strait — an open, untolled international waterway before the war started — triggered a global energy supply shock that drove up gas prices, exacerbated inflation and raised alarms about oil reserves."The President's preference is always diplomacy, but he reserves all options to ensure that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon," White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CNBC by email.Even those who believe diplomacy remains a viable path to peace acknowledge the future of the strait presents an intractable problem."There still appears to be a fundamental difference over the fate of Hormuz: Iran wants to impose a service fee, while the US wants the pre-war situation restored, i.e., international, free waters in the Strait," Claudio Galimberti, partner and chief economist at Rystad Energy, said by email. Bessent, Trump teased imminent deal The oil market is eager for any hint of progress toward reopening the strait. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided a major dose of optimism Tuesday morning when he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that a deal to ensure "freedom of movement" in the strait could come in a matter of hours."We are in talks with the Iranians," Bessent said. "There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict." watch nowVIDEO5:0405:04Treasury Secretary Bessent: We may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait of HormuzSquawk Box Oil prices tumbled right after Bessent's remarks, while stocks blasted higher and bold yields pulled back, as investors' optimism coincided with an artificial intelligence-fueled tech rally.Crude prices remain highly elevated from their prewar levels, however, as traders bounce between hope for a durable solution in the strait and bracing for a military escalation by the U.S.The market "remains trapped in a spiky muddle-through dynamic," Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC in an email."While Iran and Oman may agree on a narrow Hormuz management plan, we do not see the broader and durable settlement between the US and Iran that Hormuz normalization requires and the crude markets want to see," he said.Bessent's comments to CNBC nevertheless buoyed outlooks that were already brightening, in light of Trump's Sunday evening announcement that he was aborting a large-scale attack on Iran because "the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to."That claim — which echoed myriad other times that Trump has threatened to decisively obliterate Iran, only to pull back — helped pump stocks on Monday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a record close.Trump added more fuel to the fire Tuesday night, when he said a deal to reopen the strait "could happen" as soon as Wednesday or Thursday because "a lot of progress has been made."Despite extending Bessent's time frame for a possible deal, Trump's comments continued to raise investors' expectations on Wednesday, with the Dow hitting another record-high close and oil prices holding steady. Iran pushes back on Trump The galloping momentum in equities came in spite of Iran's repeated insistence that it is not actively negotiating with the U.S.Rather, Iran has said it's in talks with Oman, another regional power that borders the Persian Gulf, to hash out their own agreement on shipping through the strait.Trump has angrily asserted that U.S.-Iran talks are ongoing despite Iran's "duplicitous" claims otherwise. He also continues to insist the U.S., which has reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf region, is in full control of the strait. Vessel traffic, however, remains far below prewar averages, when 20% of the world's oil would pass through the waterway.On Thursday, any expectations of an imminent deal on the strait appeared to be at least temporarily dashed, after Iranian state media reported a draft plan that would block passage for U.S. and Israeli ships and impose other restrictions.The Trump administration quickly appeared to dismiss that draft as a nonstarter. Read more CNBC politics and policy coverageKhanna to introduce ‘Data Center Bill of Rights’ as fight over AI power plants heats upKids Online Safety Act social media safety bill advances in SenateTrump admin refunds $100 billion in ‘liberation day’ tariffs "Any temporary routes will be without any impediments — meaning no approvals or permissions and no tolls or charges," a U.S. official told CNBC when asked about the report. "The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway and no party controls the lanes or the ability to transit through them."When asked at the White House on Thursday afternoon if a deal to reopen the strait has been reached, Trump said: "I don't want to say it has been. It's sort of open right now.""I think we're doing very well," Trump added. "I'm involved in the negotiation. I think we're doing fine. ... It could be soon."Iran, which has kept up an aggressively defiant posture against the U.S. throughout the war, mocked Trump's messaging.″'Massive attack coming … wait, never mind, they want to negotiate.' That's theater diplomacy on loop," Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on X on Thursday afternoon."Using bullying + broken promises + fake news as leverage is a failed strategy," Ghalibaf wrote. 'Deeply entrenched optimism bias' As the war drags into its sixth month and stockpiles of both oil and key munitions reportedly dwindle, analysts wonder how much longer markets will jump at the dangling hope of a deal. "The cycle of headline-driven price pullbacks may lead to confidence that the economic cost of the conflict is containable," but the shrinking U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve signals "waning global buffers," RBC wrote in a July 28 strategy note.Rapidan's McNally warned oil prices could shoot back up to peak levels "if both sides are unable to contain military escalation or continued inventory de-stocking dissipates the market's deeply entrenched optimism bias and calls on prices to curtail consumption."Galimberti, of Rystad, told CNBC, "My hunch is that if they want to avoid a costly stalemate, with oil prices quickly escalating back to April levels or above and little to no Iranian flows, they will need to start bridging the differences and move their respective red lines towards the center." Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky wasn’t sure AI would help the company, but a year later, he says it’s the reason growth is back. View More

In this articleABNBFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT watch nowVIDEO2:5002:50Airbnb CEO says AI is the ‘number one explanation’ for accelerating growthSquawk on the Street Airbnb shares surged 15% Friday after the company delivered one of its strongest growth quarters in years and raised its full-year outlook — a turnaround CEO Brian Chesky is directly crediting to artificial intelligence.In an exclusive interview with CNBC after the earnings report, Chesky said Airbnb will spend "a lot more" on AI tokens this year than it originally forecast because the cost of inference "pales in comparison" to the revenue and productivity the company is getting back. Airbnb is cutting product-development time by roughly 60%, shipping about 80% more features year over year and keeping headcount roughly flat even as AI spending rises sharply, Chesky said."I think now it's safe to say AI is the best thing to have happened to Airbnb," he said. "I think we're becoming an AI-native company, and I think that is probably the number one explanation for our results."That conviction marks a sharp turn for Chesky. A year ago, Chesky said the question inside the company was essentially, "Is AI good for Airbnb or is AI bad for Airbnb?"The shift is notable for a CEO who has long approached technology more like a designer than a traditional engineer.Chesky went to the Rhode Island School of Design and studied industrial design before co-founding Airbnb. Years later, he would become close with former Apple design chief Jony Ive and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman — and eventually introduce the two men, helping spark the relationship that led to their work together on AI hardware.Now, Chesky is trying to bring that same design-first sensibility to Airbnb's own AI overhaul. Read more CNBC tech news'AI Kill Switch' bill needs to be passed this year amid ongoing rogue agent hacks, Rep. Lieu saysSpaceX stock could face further pressure as first batch of shares unlock since IPOGoogle is expanding its AI empire — and losing the people who built itHadrian valued at nearly $8 billion after fresh funding as money pours into defense tech The company hired Ahmad Al-Dahle, Meta's former head of generative AI and a leader of its Llama work, as chief technology officer in January. Chesky said Airbnb had been "maybe middle of the pack in AI" before Al-Dahle arrived with a mandate to help make the company "AI-native."There are already measurable signs of that shift. Chesky said AI is helping Airbnb attract more bookings, make it easier for hosts to list and price homes, and lower customer-service costs.The company is piloting AI-powered search, using AI to generate personalized listing highlights and answers for guests, and helping hosts create and price listings. In customer service, 45% of guests who interact with Airbnb's AI agent never need to speak with a human agent."It's really across the board: More demand, more supply, cheaper customer service," Chesky said.Internally, Airbnb is also closely tracking how employees use AI. Chesky said the company looks at individual token usage as one measure of adoption, but considers that a relatively crude metric and focuses more heavily on the output of teams."What we're seeing is that across the board, teams are significantly more productive," Chesky said. He said those gains began with engineers and have since spread to product management, design, marketing, and creative services. "I have so underestimated the impact of AI." watch nowVIDEO15:4915:49Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky says AI is the best thing to have happened to AirbnbTech That productivity is showing up in Airbnb's hiring plans as well. Headcount is roughly flat year to date, even as spending on AI rises sharply, and Chesky said investors should expect revenue to grow "a lot faster" than staffing for the foreseeable future."Our philosophy has been not necessarily to use AI to have fewer people, but to use AI to get more out of the people," Chesky said. He added that revenue per employee should continue to rise.The economics are central to Chesky's increasingly bullish view of AI. While many consumer companies are still trying to figure out how to generate enough revenue to justify inference costs, he argues Airbnb has an unusually favorable model."One of the problems is a lot of people feel like they don't know how to make money on consumer with AI," Chesky said. At Airbnb, he said, inference costs pale in comparison with "the amount of money we make on every booking" and the additional revenue generated by faster product development."We are going to spend a lot more on AI tokens this year than we forecasted," he said. "But that's great because the ROI is there, and therefore our revenue is much higher."Airbnb is still trying to be selective about where it spends those tokens and the company is using more than a dozen AI models internally, Chesky said. Those include models like Anthropic's Claude Code and OpenAI's Codex. But it limits access to some slower and more expensive models when their additional capability is not necessary for the task. watch nowVIDEO1:2901:29Airbnb raises its outlook as growth accelerates and AI speeds product developmentFast Money Chesky is particularly bullish on open-source models for consumer-facing products and said frontier models remain important for the hardest problems, but most consumer tasks do not require the most expensive systems."Consumers mostly do not need frontier models for most things," Chesky said. "It's a matter of throttling the right job for the right tool."He declined to name the open-source models Airbnb is deploying in consumer products, saying the makeup of the company's technology stack is becoming competitively sensitive.The bigger question is whether AI ultimately becomes more than a tool inside Airbnb — and instead changes how travelers reach the platform in the first place. As AI agents become better at assembling itineraries and acting on behalf of users, companies like OpenAI and Alphabet could theoretically become the interface through which travelers discover and book accommodations.But Chesky is skeptical that chatbots will replace Airbnb as the transaction layer. Travel is visual, difficult to compare through text alone and often planned collaboratively, he said, all areas where the traditional chatbot interface remains weak."I do not believe the chat interface is the right interface for travel," Chesky said. He expects chatbots to become important for inspiration and itinerary building, but said he does not see them becoming major booking platforms "in the coming future."For now, Chesky said he is focused on using AI to extend Airbnb's own growth runway. He told CNBC that first-time bookers are growing at the fastest pace in four years and said the U.S. business accelerated from the first quarter. Hotels, meanwhile, are growing three times faster than the company's traditional home listings as Airbnb expands beyond the home-rental marketplace it built its name on."We are not a company whose best days were in the 2010s," Chesky said. "We are a company where the best days are in front of us." Stock Chart IconStock chart iconAirbnb stock chart Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

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Some companies plan to shun the cheapest business- and premium- economy fares from their executives. View More

In this articleDALUALFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT United Airlines Polaris lounge in ChicagoUnited Airlines CHICAGO — No advanced seat selection, lounge access or flight changes included with a C-suite executive's business-class ticket? Absolutely not, some companies say.Delta Air Lines joined United Airlines last month in launching stripped-down business-class fares for certain flights, taking the same approach they used to carve up coach class to their more expensive cabins as carriers get customers to pay more for perks in the sky. That's a new headache for companies' business travel managers.AerSale — which leases aircraft and engines and offers maintenance and other services — likely won't block basic premium options altogether for its hundreds of traveling employees. But those tickets would be impractical for many of its workers, said Jackie Carlon, the Doral, Florida-based company's senior vice president of marketing and communications."The real value is flexibility," Carlon said. "Paying a bit more, it's not necessarily a cost to us — it's insurance." What's included with basic business — and what's not With the new fares, the cheapest option for long-haul international flights won't come with things like access to an airport lounge or the ability to pick a seat for free in advance. Perhaps most important for business travel, no changes are allowed without paying a fee on top of a difference in fare.Delta said change fees for basic business class could range from none at all up to $400, depending on the route, and from $99 to as much as $500 for cancellations. Because work trips can change on a dime, a restrictive ticket in business class can cost a company even more if travelers have to buy a whole new flight. Only a small proportion of a corporation's business travelers usually fly in top-tier cabins, but the higher fares could further drive up travel costs. The difference in fares, meanwhile, could be several hundred dollars to close to $1,000, if not more.On United, for example, the least expensive fare in the airlines' lie-flat pod Polaris cabin doesn't come with access to the Polaris business-class airport lounge, which features a bar, sit-down dining, a rest area, showers and other amenities. The traveler also can't pick a seat in advance without paying a fee and no changes are allowed. Travelers can cancel the flight with a fee. United doesn't disclose its fees for the new fares, and a spokeswoman said the amounts vary.For a flight going from Newark, New Jersey, to London Heathrow on Oct. 1 and returning Oct. 8, the "base" Polaris ticket was going for $4,490, while the standard fare was $4,890, and it was $5,390 for a flexible, refundable ticket. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards Airlines say it gives customers more of a choice."We support our corporate travel partners by giving them full control over which fare products are available to their business travelers based on their own policies and business objectives," Delta said in a statement. "We continue to see strong demand for premium travel." Corporate considerations Dane Molter, senior vice president at Navan Group Travel Marketplace, which reported $9.1 billion in gross booking volume in the 12 months ended Jan. 31, said clients who use the platform are seeking more detailed policy controls that could determine which fare an employee books for a trip."Travel managers are asking a sensible question: Does the lower upfront fare still represent good value if it lacks flexibility, seat selection, lounge access or other benefits their travelers expect?" he said in a statement. Read more about airline class dividesAmerican Airlines will stop upgrading elite flyers to business from coach on long domestic flightsUnited Airlines’ new upsell: Keeping other travelers out of the middle seatDelta launches ‘basic business’ fares without lounge access, seat selectionBasic business class is here with new, stripped-down United Polaris faresUnited Airlines is paring back rewards for travelers who don’t have its credit cardAmerican Airlines no longer lets basic economy flyers earn milesCompanies to airlines: We don’t want your cheapest fares Two travel managers at public companies at the Global Business Travel Association's annual convention in Chicago said they would likely seek to block the fares altogether. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to talk about their employers' travel spending, While airlines like Germany's Lufthansa and Etihad Airways, based in the United Arab Emirates, have already offered stripped-down basic business-class fares, it's still early days for these types of tickets.The divisions at the front of the plane come as airfare is on the rise across the board this year. Globally, airfare is set to rise close to 5% this year from last to an average of $756 for a roundtrip flight, with premium increasing even more: 9.5% to $4,488, the Global Business Travel Association forecast this week at its annual convention. watch nowVIDEO4:3804:38Why airfare is so high and why it'll likely stay that wayConsumer & Retail Digital Original Video John Bukowski, vice president of global marketplace experience, product and engineering at corporate travel and expense giant American Express Global Business Travel, which had $36.3 billion in bookings in 2025, told CNBC earlier this week that he hasn't seen a lot of clients seeking to block the fares so far, like they have with basic economy tickets.Companies about a decade ago started blocking their travelers from booking basic economy fares, which have become even more restrictive, including in some cases by lowering the frequent flyer miles a traveler earns or eliminating that option altogether. Airline executives have frequently measured the success of basic economy by how many travelers paid up to avoid it.Scott Laurence, a partner at Oliver Wyman's transportation practice who previously worked at JetBlue Airways and American Airlines, said the cheaper, basic business or other premium fares could be attractive to a more price-sensitive small or medium-sized company, but that the options could become complicated.American doesn't offer the basic business, or basic premium economy fares, which could also add confusion if another carrier that does appears cheaper at first glance."The travel managers are going to value some level of simplicity and making sure things work with their expense system and their policy," he said. Laurence added that travel managers are likely to collect a lot of feedback from their customers, especially if they're used to lounge access at the end of a long-haul flight or they're earning fewer miles.But "there's an interest in offering a lower price point," he said. "It also is ... frankly, about driving buy up." Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

A weaker labor market would weaken the case for raising rates, which some members of the central bank have called for amid higher energy prices. View More

An eagle is seen framed though construction fence on the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, the main offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on September 16, 2025 in Washington, DC, U.S.Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images The U.S. economy surprisingly shed jobs in July, and it's leading investors to think that an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September is increasingly unlikely. After the jobs report was revealed on Friday morning, odds on prediction market platform Kalshi that the central bank holds rates steady at its meeting next month jumped to 65%. Before the report, odds were about 50-50 for a hike or maintaining the status quo, and just after the Fed's last meeting at the end of July odds of a hike were at almost 58%. On CME's FedWatch tool, odds that the Fed will maintain rates are now at 60%, based on trading in Fed funds futures. On Thursday, those chances were at 45%, and a week ago they were just one-in-three. The weaker-than-expected jobs report sent Treasury yields lower and stocks higher, as investors priced in the new outlook for the rate path. If the labor market is weakening, that may change how the central bank thinks about rate hikes, which some members of the Fed have called for amid higher energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran war. At the bank's July meeting, three members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissented, arguing the bank should have raised interest rates rather than held them steady. However, those calls have come after the labor market showed resiliency in 2026 with consistent job growth, after a more mixed picture in 2025. If the job market is showcasing weakness, raising interest rates to slow down the economy may be viewed as more risky. Investors' eyes will now be on what the inflation picture in July looked like, and the Consumer Price Index for the month is set to be released next week on Aug. 12. In June, prices posted their biggest month-over-month fall in six years as energy prices fell, though oil rose in July amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. "Today's weak payrolls print may ease the pressure on the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting, but next week's inflation data will still likely be the deciding factor," said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "If those numbers come in hotter than expected, a cooler labor market may not be enough to quiet the calls for hikes inside the Fed."And rate hikes this year still aren't out of the question. Even after the report, CME's FedWatch tool still sees a 55% chance of a hike in October, and an almost 75% chance in December. — CNBC's Sean Conlon contributed reportingDisclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day. View More

This is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.Happy Friday. We got insight yesterday into cyclospora's business impact from one of the companies most associated with lettuce: Sweetgreen. Shares of the salad chain are tanking in extended trading after it cut its full-year outlook, saying fears around the outbreak hurt sales.Stock futures are higher this morning after a negative day.Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day: 1. On the job A now hiring sign is posted in the window of a Domino's Pizza restaurant on June 5, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty Images All eyes are on July's nonfarm payrolls report due out at 8:30 a.m. ET for the latest clues on where the labor market is heading. Wall Street's expectations for the numbers vary significantly, meaning some investors could be in for a surprise.Here's what to know:Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the report to show a gain of 83,000 jobs last month and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%.But others are anticipating headline figures far lower and warning that the unemployment rate — which is followed particularly closely by the Federal Reserve — could tick higher.There have been mixed signals in recent days: While jobless claims came in lower than expected Thursday, ADP reported earlier this week that private payrolls posted cooler growth than anticipated in July.All three major averages are on track to log a positive week, even with yesterday's pullback. The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its longest winning streak in more than two months on Thursday.Follow live market updates here. 2. Fuel for thought A driver refuels a vehicle at a Marathon gas station in Pinole, California, US, on Monday, Aug. 3, 2026. David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images Iranian state news reported yesterday that U.S. and Israeli ships would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz under a new draft plan for the passageway. Oil prices jumped following the report, reversing course after a recent downturn on hopes for a forthcoming deal.Regardless of whether crude prices stabilize, drivers should expect to continue paying higher prices for fuel into the fall. As CNBC's Spencer Kimball reports, a global shortage in refining capacity could cause Americans to see a record Labor Day price this year. Get Morning Squawk directly in your inboxCNBC's Morning Squawk recaps the biggest stories investors should know before the stock market opens, every weekday morning.Subscribe here to get access today. 3. Wholesale woes Prospective buyers arrive during an open house in Rancho Cucamonga, California, US, on Saturday, May 9, 2026.Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images United Wholesale Mortgage's parent stock had its worst day on record yesterday. Shares of UWM Holdings cratered by almost 35% after the lender suspended its dividend and raised new capital.As CNBC's Yun Li notes, mortgage lenders have been facing one of their toughest backdrops in years. The recent rise in Treasury yields has put upward pressure on mortgage rates, in turn souring expectations for the housing market and curbing refinancing activity.Higher mortgage rates are also exacerbating the K-shaped problem playing out in the housing market: While starter home sales are declining, luxury properties are flying off the market. 4. Raising the roof People visit the AirBnB stand at the 2026 ITB tourism trade fair on March 04, 2026 in Berlin, Germany. Sean Gallup | Getty Images Shares of Airbnb are nearly 8% higher in premarket trading after the company beat analyst expectations on both lines and issued a stronger-than-predicted outlook for the current quarter. The vacation booking platform said it saw strong demand "across all regions," though its Latin American business outperformed with bookings growth of about 20%.Speaking of vacations: For those flying to a rental property on American Airlines, you may need to shift expectations. American said it would stop upgrading frequent fliers to business class for free on many of its long domestic flights. 5. AI's value FILE PHOTO: Facade with sign at Savers Thrift Superstore, a thrift store chain selling reused and recycling clothing and household items, Dublin, California, Sept. 7, 2018.Smith Collection | Gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images Two consumer companies with far different focuses put their AI strategies on display yesterday.Savers Value Village told CNBC's Laya Neelakandan that it is launching an AI pricing tool in hopes of keeping prices consistent and affordable as the broader segment takes off. Nearly 60 pilot stores are already using the new platform, called Thrift IQ, which CEO Mark Walsh said is aimed at making workers more productive rather than replacing them.Meanwhile, Grindr reported a 33% year-over-year jump in revenue in the second quarter and upped its guidance for the full year — results CEO George Arison said were proof his AI strategy is working. "Our strategy has always been to use AI everywhere we can," said Arison, whose company is testing pricing for an AI-powered companion tool. The Daily Dividend Here are some articles to add to your weekend reading list:Big Tech's Anthropic and OpenAI stakes are distorting the corporate earnings pictureHow Disney parks are bucking a travel slowdownFord's new 'Fathom' electric pickup truck will start at $28,000Situational Awareness wasn't the only one that had a bad July. Hedge funds took a historical hit last monthTrump treats Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh as an ally. That creates economic risksWhat copper's jump to all-time highs tells us— CNBC's Amelia Lucas, Jeff Cox, Sean Conlon, Spencer Kimball, Kevin Breuninger, Lim Hui Jie, Yun Li, Sarah Agostino, Ari Levy, Laya Neelakandan and Brandon Gomez contributed to this report.Luke Fountain assisted in the production of this newsletter. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Chinese AI companies have made recent leaps in closing the performance gap with U.S. frontier labs. View More

In this article94345.T-JPPLTRMETAINTCFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT This report is from this week's The Tech Download newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.Earlier this week, Clément Delangue, the CEO of startup Hugging Face — which was recently on the receiving end of a rogue cyber attack by OpenAI's models — made the somewhat controversial claim that China was winning the AI race."[China is] clearly dominating on open models right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if they start dominating at the frontier either by the end of this year or next year at the rate of progress," the Hugging Face CEO told CNBC earlier this week.Despite being hamstrung by access to cutting edge AI compute — an area in which the U.S. dominates and has looked to block China from getting access to — Chinese AI models are increasingly closing the performance gap with U.S. frontier systems. Beijing-based Moonshot's Kimi K3, released in July, edged ever closer to top models from Anthropic and OpenAI in benchmarking, even surpassing them in some areas. There's been growing adoption of Chinese AI models among Western companies as capability has shot up. And there are other areas in AI which China is also considered to be leading in. The world's most capable open models – which can be downloaded, modified and self-hosted – are all Chinese, and many experts consider the country to be ahead in robotics.So is the U.S. losing the AI arms race? U.S. and Chinese companies have come to dominate the global artificial intelligence race.Imen Ben Youssef | Afp | Getty Images China's advantages While lagging behind the frontier, China's models have emerged as cheaper and highly capable alternatives to U.S. options. With most AI use not requiring frontier model capabilities, adoption has risen on American shores and reportedly in developing economies in Africa. "Based on current trends it seems more likely than not that Chinese AI will become the default for developing countries," Daniel Remler, senior fellow, technology and national security program at think tank the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told CNBC.That could have far-reaching consequences. "If Chinese AI technology becomes the default for developing countries, those countries may be more likely to align themselves politically with Beijing and Chinese AI companies get a beachhead in their markets," Remler said.China has "significant advantages" across many areas where AI will be deployed, including robotics, autonomous vehicles and state operations, Keegan McBride, director of science and technology policy at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, told me.Long term, if "manufacturing, robotics, automated scientific infrastructure and AI-enabled state operations become the defining metric for extracting value from AI, China is well positioned," he added. The compute challenge But compute is an uphill struggle for China. "The U.S. currently has the most capable models in the world, strong tech alliances and an overwhelming compute advantage," McBride said.U.S. export controls have severely limited Chinese AI firms' access to the most advanced chips. "This not only undermines their ability to train larger and more capable AI models, but also to serve inference on those models," said Remler. Moonshot had to pause new subscriptions due to limited capacity after demand for Kimi K3 boomed.Nevertheless, China is working to overcome compute constraints. Companies have been accused of accessing advanced compute overseas, distilling U.S. models and smuggling Nvidia chips into the country. Its own domestic chip industry is also gaining ground — though is still a significant distance behind America's.The U.S. also has other factors in its favor. While it (like China) has abundant energy potential, the country's private capital ecosystem has allowed companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to raise record funding and scale. Talent still flocks to the country. "If the United States can sustain these strengths, it will retain its AI advantage, serious geopolitical leverage, and ability to shape global AI rules," said Remler. But the race is anything but settled. Chinese AI systems are reaching new heights in terms of global adoption and capability. The defining question is no longer whether China can compete at the frontier, Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policyanalyst at Longview Global wrote in an article for CNBC earlier this month. "It is whether the U.S. can adapt quickly enough to compete against an increasingly sophisticated Chinese innovation ecosystem that is advancing not only on model performance but also on cost, deployment, customization, financing, standards, developer adoption and global reach." News edit SoftBank reported profit for its fiscal first quarter that beat market expectations, driven by a huge gain on its stake in Intel, while a rise in ByteDance's value helped its Vision Fund division.Anthropic's Mythos model created fake online identities as it looked to pressure humans into approving malicious code updates to an open source project, marking yet another cyber incident carried out by a frontier AI system.The European Union gained new powers to inspect AI models, restrict EU market access and fine model providers, raising the stakes for U.S. companies like Anthropic and OpenAI and GoogleMeta was ordered to pay $567 million into an abatement fund in New Mexico as part of a public nuisance case that's just one of many suits the company faces related to alleged harms caused by its apps.Hadrian has been valued at nearly $8 billion after fresh funding as money pours into defense tech. One more thing Stock Chart IconStock chart iconPalantir stock. Palantir stock skyrocketed 29.5% on Tuesday after the company reported "otherworldly" second-quarter earnings driven by customer demand for AI sovereign tools. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.