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Chinese startups are churning out more humanoid robots than their U.S. rivals, despite far lower valuations. View More

In this articleLIFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT A staff member trains a humanoid robot to replicate human behavior at a training center in Hefei, Anhui province of China, on April 13, 2026.Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images .ido-promo__content { box-sizing: border-box; width: 100%; background-color: #f0f0f0; padding: 2px 20px 2px 20px; font-family: Lyon, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.66; } This report is from this week's CNBC's The China Connection newsletter, which brings you insights and analysis on what's driving the world's second-largest economy. You can subscribe here. Hi, this is Evelyn, writing to you from Beijing. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a succinct snapshot of what I'm seeing and hearing from local businesses.Today, I dig into rising valuations for Chinese humanoid startups and why they still aren't attracting the same kind of money as their U.S. rivals — despite delivering far more robots. Are U.S. VCs missing out? The big story Chinese humanoid startups are already shipping robots to factories and malls, while their U.S. rivals remain focused on development — and far higher valuations.It's a growing divide.U.S. humanoid robot startup Figure commands a valuation of at least $39 billion; Texas-based rival Apptronik, meanwhile, achieved a $5 billion valuation in February.That's well above the $3 billion-plus valuation of Chinese startup Galbot, which claims to be the highest-valued privately-held Chinese company in the sector. And its backers come from China, Singapore and the Middle East — not the U.S. Among private companies — and there are well over 100 humanoid startups in China — AI2 Robotics has achieved a 20 billion yuan ($2.93 billion) valuation, according to CEO and founder Eric Guo. It might be a fraction of Figure's valuation, but Guo claimed a large, foreign high-end manufacturer chose AI2's robots over the U.S. startup's for factory work. AI2 is also rolling out robots at airports in China, as well as in semiconductor and healthcare factories. "Commercialization and tech capability aren't contradictory," Guo said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. It's an investment thesis he expects investors — even from the U.S. — to start picking up on in just a few months.If that shift happens, China is well-positioned. Chinese humanoid startups took the top six spots in Omdia's rankings of global robot shipments in 2025. Figure and Tesla were the only U.S. companies that made the top 10. While a Figure robot appeared beside U.S. first lady Melania Trump at a White House event in March, Tesla's Optimus still largely remains in development.Another reason for the valuation gap is how investors perceive the companies and their ambitions.U.S. humanoid startups are being priced as wide-reaching artificial intelligence platforms, while Chinese ones are seen more as industrial hardware plays, said Rui Ma, founder of Tech Buzz China, which regularly brings U.S. investors to visit Chinese startups."If China ends up dominating manufacturing scale and real-world deployment," U.S. venture capital funds may miss out on the opportunity to some degree, she said. Playing both sides Geopolitics has complicated the investment landscape.U.S.-China tensions, along with domestic national security policies, have chilled cross-border investment. Large U.S. pension funds that once invested heavily in Chinese startups via venture capital funds have reduced their exposure in the wake of greater regulatory scrutiny on both sides.That has created an opportunity for Middle East funds. They have backed Chinese venture capital and bought locally developed robots as Gulf countries look to transition away from fossil fuels. They "seem able to play both sides more flexibly," Tech Buzz's Ma said, adding that "they may end up with the most balanced exposure to the humanoid opportunity."Limx Dynamics, whose backers include China-based Future Capital, got its first foreign investor this year in the form of Dubai-based Stone Venture. "Roughly 90% of U.S. venture capital flows into software, for example, leaving a critical financing gap in hard tech that sovereign funds are uniquely positioned to fill," said Winston Ma, adjunct professor of law at the New York University School of Law. He added that China's experience with electric car and drone manufacturing is now translating into humanoid production.Future Capital, whose early investments included EV company Li Auto, recently announced that another of its portfolio companies, sports robot company Pongbot, had raised almost 200 million yuan in less than six months. It's a sign of how quickly the money is coming in, even if it's at a fraction of the U.S. level.Diverging trajectories also flip the script for investors, according to Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at supply chain consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. He says Americans are coming to Shenzhen to buy humanoid robot parts — and combine them with U.S. software. Need to know China's economy grew by 5% in the first quarterFirst-quarter GDP rose by a better-than-expected 5% from a year ago, while retail sales missed with a 1.7% year-on-year increase in March. Exports slowed their growth to just 2.5% as the Iran war hit global demand.Chinese robotaxi companies forge ahead in UAE despite Iran warRide-hailing company Didi last week became the latest Chinese robotaxi business to announce expansion plans in the Middle East. The news came as part of a business forum the United Arab Emirates organized with China as part of a state visit to Beijing.Hong Kong to announce tax break to lure global commodity tradersThe region plans to halve the tax rate on profits from trading certain commodities in an effort to draw global players to the finance hub on the southern coast of China. Exact implementation dates have yet to be announced. Coming up April 21: Volkswagen Group to premiere four new car models in BeijingApril 24 - May 3: Beijing Auto ShowApril 15 - May 5: Export-focused Canton Fair in Guangzhou (Spring Session) Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Amazon is boosting its investment in Anthropic, which is committing to spending over $100 billion on Amazon cloud services over the next decade. View More

In this articleAVGOFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon, speaking with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 20, 2026.CNBC Amazon has agreed to invest up to $25 billion in Anthropic, on top of the $8 billion that it has poured into the artificial intelligence startup in recent years, as part of an expanded agreement to build out AI infrastructure. In the announcement on Monday, Anthropic said it's committed to spending more than $100 billion on Amazon Web Services technologies over the next 10 years, including current and future generations of Trainium, Amazon's custom AI chips. Anthropic said it's secured up to 5 gigawatts of capacity for training and deploying its Claude AI models."Anthropic's commitment to run its large language models on AWS Trainium for the next decade reflects the progress we've made together on custom silicon, as we continue delivering the technology and infrastructure our customers need to build with generative AI," Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in a statement.Amazon's investment includes $5 billion into Anthropic now, with up to $20 billion in the future tied to "certain commercial milestones," according to a release. The initial investment is at Anthropic's latest valuation of $380 billion.Anthropic said in the release that it will bring nearly 1 gigawatt total of Trainium2 and Trainium3 capacity online by the end of the year.With all of the major hyperscalers competing to build out AI capacity as quickly as possible, Amazon said in February that it expects to shell out roughly $200 billion this year on capital expenditures, mostly on AI infrastructure. Read more CNBC tech newsAnthropic's Dario Amodei to meet with White House about MythosAMD, Oracle, Microsoft and the IGV lead a monster week for tech stocksNvidia AI chip rivals attract record funding as competition heats upTSMC and ASML post-earnings stock moves could be a sign of what's to come from chip companies Amazon's investment lands just two months after the e-commerce giant agreed to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI, Anthropic's chief rival. The two AI companies have been racing to convince investors of their strengthening positions ahead of potential IPOs that could land as soon as this year. OpenAI executives have been criticizing Anthropic in recent months for making a "strategic misstep to not acquire enough compute."Anthropic said on Monday that enterprise and developer demand for Claude, as well as a "sharp rise" in consumer usage, has led to "inevitable strain" on its infrastructure that has impacted its reliability and performance. The company said its new agreement with Amazon will quickly expand its available capacity."Our users tell us Claude is increasingly essential to how they work, and we need to build the infrastructure to keep pace with rapidly growing demand," Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in a statement. "Our collaboration with Amazon will allow us to continue advancing AI research while delivering Claude to our customers, including the more than 100,000 building on AWS."Anthropic was founded in 2021 by a group of researchers and executives who defected from OpenAI. The company is best known for its family of Claude AI models and it's found early success selling to enterprises. Annualized revenue has topped $30 billion.Anthropic named AWS its primary cloud provider in 2023 and its primary training partner in 2024, but the company has also inked deals with competing providers, including Microsoft and Google.In November, Microsoft agreed to invest up to $5 billion into Anthropic, and Anthropic said it committed to purchasing $30 billion of Azure compute capacity. Earlier this month, Anthropic expanded its partnerships with Google and Broadcom for "multiple gigawatts" of capacity.— CNBC's Kate Rooney contributed to this reportWATCH: OpenAI memo criticizes Anthropic watch nowVIDEO2:2302:23OpenAI memo criticizes AnthropicTechCheck Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Marvell saw a $2 billion investment from Nvidia in March, as AI demand continues to surge. View More

In this articleMUAVGOGOOGLFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT Marvell Technology Group Ltd. headquarters in Santa Clara, California, on Sept. 6, 2024.David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images Shares of Marvell Technology gained nearly 6% on Monday amid reports that Google will use the chip design firm for two new chips to power artificial intelligence workloads.Until now, Google has relied on Marvell rival Broadcom for the design of its in-house Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs. Broadcom shares fell nearly 2% Monday following the report by The Information.The potential deal between Google and Marvell could include a TPU as well as a memory processing unit, The Information reported on Sunday. Google and Marvell did not immediately reply to requests for comment.Both Marvell and Broadcom help their customers translate chip designs into silicon, providing back-end support before the processors are sent off to be manufactured at huge fabrication plants by companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.It's a role that's fueled the growth of both Marvell and Broadcom as more tech giants design in-house accelerators for AI.Amid that hustle to make enough silicon to power AI, it's no surprise to see Google diversify its chip deals beyond Broadcom. The Google-Broadcom partnership is alive and well, having just been extended through 2031 in an expanded deal announced earlier this month.Meta last week also made a big deal with Broadcom, committing to deploy 1 gigawatt of its own custom MTIA chips using Broadcom technology. Read more CNBC tech newsAnthropic's Dario Amodei to meet with White House about MythosAMD, Oracle, Microsoft and the IGV lead a monster week for tech stocksNvidia AI chip rivals attract record funding as competition heats upTSMC and ASML post-earnings stock moves could be a sign of what's to come from chip companies Marvell stock gained more than 20% in March as the company posted strong fourth-quarter earnings and guidance amid surging demand for AI. Shares have continued to soar in April, up nearly 50% so far.Nvidia also announced a $2 billion investment in Marvell in March. The deal makes it easier for Nvidia customers to access the application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICs, being made by hyperscalers like Google.Google was the first hypserscaler to begin developing its own custom ASIC to accelerate AI workloads, releasing its initial TPU in 2015. Giants like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI all followed suit, as Big Tech scrambles for enough compute and lower-cost alternatives to Nvidia's AI chips.Google released its latest 7th generation "Ironwood" TPU in November, and may release its next chips at its annual AI conference, Google Cloud Next, later this week.Originally trained for internal workloads, Google's custom microchip has been available to cloud customers since 2018. Meta, Anthropic and Apple all now use TPUs, as Google increasingly encroaches on a market cornered by Nvidia's graphics processing units.Memory has been one of several bottlenecks facing AI chipmakers in recent months, with a shortage of supply from memory makers like Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung.CNBC's Kristina Partsinevelos contributed to this report.Watch: Inside Google's chip lab, where it makes custom silicon to train Gemini and Apple AI models watch nowVIDEO13:1213:12How Google makes custom AI chips that power Apple Intelligence and GeminiTech Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Trump reportedly said Sunday that if Iran doesn't sign a deal, "the whole country is going to get blown up," with its bridges and power plants being targeted. View More

In this article@CL.1Follow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT US President Donald Trump speaks to the press before departing from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 16, 2026. Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images President Donald Trump on Monday again threatened Iran with overwhelming military force, saying "lots of bombs [will] start going off" if no deal is reached before a shaky ceasefire with Tehran expires Tuesday evening.The latest threat, made in a phone call with a PBS News reporter, came as the status of additional U.S.-Iran peace talks, and other key details on the current relationship between the warring powers, have grown increasingly opaque.At the same time, Trump has resumed his saber-rattling rhetoric, which had escalated two weeks ago before the expiring fragile ceasefire was reached. Trump, in phone calls with reporters over the past two days, has vacillated between warmongering and offering unclear details about further negotiations.Specifics about a potential deal also remain fuzzy. The Trump administration has stated repeatedly that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, and the president said Friday that the U.S. would also get what he has referred to as the "Dust" left after last year's bombing of Iranian nuclear sites.He has also demanded that Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic, which has slowed to a trickle since the war began on Feb. 28. The de facto closure of the key shipping route has sent global oil prices spiraling, giving Iran a major source of leverage and spurring the U.S. to impose a retaliatory naval blockade of Iran's ports in the middle of the ceasefire.Trump in a Truth Social post Monday afternoon boasted that the blockade is "absolutely destroying Iran" and declared that it will not be lifted until a deal is struck.In another post, the president insisted that the deal being made with Iran "will be FAR BETTER" than the Obama-era agreement known as the Iran nuclear deal, which Trump scrapped during his first term in office. Trump, while lashing out at his perceived critics, also stated he does not feel obligated to cut a deal within six weeks, his initial prediction for the length of the war. "I'm not going to let them rush the United States into making a Deal that is not as good as it could have been," Trump wrote. Monday's threat of more bombing followed a Sunday morning declaration to a Fox News reporter that "the whole country is going to get blown up" and that if Tehran doesn't sign a deal, Iran's bridges and power plants will be targeted in those attacks.The threats escalate tensions with Iran even as a U.S. delegation gears up to travel back to Pakistan for a potential second round of peace talks.The delegation "plans to travel to Islamabad soon," a source familiar with the matter told CNBC on Monday morning on condition of anonymity to discuss the trip.The information, which implies the delegation has yet to depart, came after Trump told a New York Post reporter Monday morning that U.S. officials are "heading over now."A first round of talks in Islamabad earlier this month, led by Vice President JD Vance and U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, ended with no deal after a 21-hour negotiating session.Trump confirmed to the New York Post that the same three officials are part of the round two delegation.It was not immediately clear if Iran has agreed to participate in further peace talks.A spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry said at a news conference Monday that there are no plans to attend negotiations with the U.S., multiple outlets reported. Read more CNBC politics coverageKevin Warsh would be the first tech bro Fed chair. How Silicon Valley shaped himU.S. struck, seized Iranian-flagged ship Touska in Gulf of Oman, Trump saysThree things to know about FISA Section 702: Congress passes short-term extension of controversial surveillance program But The New York Times, citing two senior Iranian officials, reported later Monday morning that a delegation from Tehran is making plans to head to Islamabad on Tuesday for talks with the U.S.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a statement Monday morning illustrated how long-standing hostility between the two sides will inevitably carry into any additional negotiations. "Deep historical mistrust in Iran toward U.S. gov conduct remains," Pezeshkian wrote in an X post, "while unconstructive & contradictory signals from American officials carry a bitter message; they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force."The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the evening of April 7, shortly before the deadline when Trump warned that "a whole civilization will die" if no deal is struck.The temporary truce has come under mounting strain throughout its short duration, as each side accused the other of violating its terms.On Sunday, Trump said that the U.S. Navy, which is blocking Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, fired on and seized an Iran-flagged cargo ship that had tried to bypass the blockade.The escalation came as Trump has complained that Iran has failed to reopen the strait, which in normal times is the throughway for 20% of the world's oil transit.This is developing news. Please check back for updates. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Trump’s remarks come amid renewed diplomatic activity around Iran and rising geopolitical tensions. His posts continue to frame the issue as a direct contrast between his proposed deal and the Obama-era nuclear agreement, positioning his approach as tougher and more security-focused. View More

European stocks traded lower on Monday as traders assess a re-acceleration in U.S.-Iran tensions. View More

In this article.STOXXLHAB-FFLHAB-FFEZJ-GBTUI-DETUI-DEVAR-NOBPTTESHEL@LCO.1@CL.1UCG-ITCBK-FFCBK-FF.SPX.IXICFollow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on April 17, 2026 in New York City. Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images LONDON — European stocks fell on Monday, amid fears that a re-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions over the weekend could derail the fragile ceasefire between the two countries. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.9% lower, with all major bourses and regional sectors besides oil and gas finishing in negative territory. President Donald Trump said Sunday that a U.S Navy guided missile destroyer had fired on and disabled an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman before Marines boarded and seized the vessel.The seizure is an escalation of the U.S. blockade of the strait and comes after Iran fired upon commercial vessels attempting to transit the maritime passage earlier Sunday. Read moreU.S. struck, seized Iranian-flagged ship Touska in Gulf of Oman, Trump saysIran rebuffs Trump's plan for new round of peace talks, state media reportsOil jumps after Iran and U.S. attack commercial ships as tensions escalate over Strait of Hormuz Since last week, the U.S. has been operating a naval blockade of ships entering and exiting Iranian ports. Iran views the ongoing blockade as a breach of the ongoing ceasefire, which it cites this as one of its reasons for calling off the expected negotiations on Monday in Islamabad.Trump warned on Sunday he would "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" if Tehran did not agree to Washington's terms to end the conflict. The fragile ceasefire between the two countries will expire this week.Having declared on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was reopened for shipping, Iran reversed that move Saturday, restricting vessel traffic through that key shipping lane, with state media saying the U.S. "did not fulfill their obligations."The renewed tensions sent several European sectors into reverse on Monday, notably travel and leisure names, which had spiked during Friday's session after Iran had declared the Strait of Hormuz had been reopened. European travel and leisure stocks closed Monday 2.5% lower.German airline Lufthansa was down 3.4%, while London-listed EasyJet had fallen 3.1%. TUI, the travel and tourism mainstay, shed 3.1%.In contrast, the region's oil and gas stocks advanced, rising 1.5%. Norwegian oil and gas multinationals led the way, as Equinor and Vår Energi rose 1% and 3.5%, respectively. Elsewhere, BP rose 3%, Totalenergies added 1.8% and Shell shares increased 2.4%. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, was recently trading at $95.20 a barrel on Monday, a 5.4% rise, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery climbed 5.7% to reach $88.62, as oil prices rebounded following Friday's retreat.Elsewhere, UniCredit fell 2.5% after its CEO Andrea Orcel unveiled far-reaching plans for a tie-up between the Italian lender and long-term target Commerzbank Monday. Commerzbank's shares were last seen 1.8% higher.Asia-Pacific markets were trading mostly higher overnight, but U.S. futures fell early Monday. The declines come after a winning week for Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbing to all-time highs last week following a ceasefire between Iran and Lebanon. There are no major earnings or data releases in Europe on Monday.— CNBC's Justina Lee and Fred Imbert contributed to this market report. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Q4 Results Today, April 20, 2026, Highlights: Catch updates View More

PNB Housing's consolidated net profit in the quarter ended March 31 stood ?at ?656 crore, up from ?550 crore a year earlier View More

A U.S. seizure of an Iranian cargo ship and reports of vessels coming under fire in the Gulf have pushed a fragile ceasefire with Tehran to the brink. View More

In this article@CL.1@LCO.1Follow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNT watch nowVIDEO3:2803:28What the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports means for IranMarkets and Politics Digital Original Video Fifty days into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, tensions escalated again after clashes in the Gulf prolonged shipping disruptions and cast doubt on a fragile ceasefire set to expire this week.After a tumultuous weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump said American and Iranian negotiators would resume talks in Islamabad on Monday, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said there was "no plan for a second round of negotiations with the U.S. for now," per Reuters. The two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Tuesday.On Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open to commercial traffic, sending crude prices tumbling more than 10%. By Saturday, hopes for a fully opened artery quickly unraveled as Tehran reclaimed control of the choke point, after Trump refused to end the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.After a brief pickup in transit attempts on Saturday, shipping traffic in the Gulf stalled once again, with vessels coming under fire mid-passage and being forced to withdraw. On Sunday, the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman. Trump called Iran's actions over the weekend a "total violation" of the truce and renewed threats to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran refuses a deal. For markets, it was a reminder of the fragility of the two-week ceasefire, and a deal that could bring a lasting end to the war is still far from done. U.S. stock futures fell on Monday while crude oil prices surged as the U.S. and Iran teetered on the brink of a renewed conflict. West Texas Intermediate futures jumped more than 6% to $89 per barrel shortly after midnight on Monday while the international benchmark Brent climbed 5.6% to $95.50 a barrel. watch nowVIDEO0:2200:22Watch tanker and cargo ships fail to transit Strait of Hormuz after Iran declares it openNews Videos "We had the most violent day in the strait on Saturday that we've had since the beginning of this crisis, and things don't seem to be getting any better," said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context. "While we keep getting these sell-offs and it keeps seeming like we're about to finally get that football — Lucy pulls it away — and we're back to where we started," Johnston told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Monday. "The strait still isn't flowing, and 13 million barrels a day of production remains shut-in. We're losing it every single day this goes on," said Johnston, who is also a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. The best realistic outcome Much will hinge on whether the U.S. and Iran will meet for a second round of peace negotiations in Pakistan later this week.Tehran had previously called Washington's "excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance" and the ongoing blockade a breach of the ceasefire.The first round of U.S.-Iran talks on April 12 between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi failed to yield an agreement. Washington reportedly proposed a 20-year pause on Iranian uranium enrichment, a request that Iranian leaders rejected, insisting on five years. Until, and unless the U.S. negotiating team rids itself of the misconception that military victory equals strategic dominance, we're not going to get to a solution.Alan EyreDistinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute Underlying differences between Washington and Tehran run deeper than the current impasse, said Alan Eyre, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute and former member of the U.S. team that negotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. "The U.S. side has really not been focused on negotiation per se. What they've been waiting for is Iranian capitulation," Eyre said. "Until and unless the U.S. negotiating team rids itself of the misconception that military victory equals strategic dominance, we're not going to get to a solution."Eyre warns that the latest flashpoints risk taking the conflict a leg higher in the near term. "There's an escalatory predisposition here where both sides could escalate and go back into a shooting war, which no one wants."While a productive round of negotiations in Islamabad remains a possibility, it is "unfortunately more likely to just go the other way — a resumption of hostilities," Eyre added. High-stake gamble The economic costs of the conflict are mounting as the Strait of Hormuz — which normally carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply — has been effectively closed for nearly two months. "The crisis is one of lost time and lost production," Johnston said, estimating supply disruptions of around 13 million barrels of crude, condensates and natural gas liquids per day. "That cumulative effect has already breached above half a billion barrels," he said, warning that even an imminent deal announcement would not immediately unwind the damage. watch nowVIDEO3:5803:58No returning to low inflation and high growth, but major downturn still unclear: AnalystSquawk Box Asia Even if a deal is reached, experts warn that it could take months to claw back the supply lost over recent weeks of closures, keeping oil prices elevated for longer. "If we actually got the strait open, we would probably see another $10 to $20 a barrel immediate rout because of the speculative hot money. But at the end of the day, we'd dump on day one and then claw ourselves back higher — probably into the $80 and $90 — to reflect the [oil] scarcity that's ongoing."Crude prices have surged more than 30% since the war broke out, with Brent briefly topping $110 a barrel for the first time in roughly four years, according to LSEG data, before easing on hopes for a breakthrough. More than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global ⁠market — the largest energy supply disruption in modern history, according to Kpler data. Despite the severity of the energy disruption, U.S. equity markets have remained largely resilient, as investors shrugged off the conflict as a blip that will be resolved relatively quickly. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwardsCNBC Europe Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research at Mizuho Bank, however, cautioned that the optimism may be premature. "We can't get prematurely euphoric about any deal signed, because the lingering adverse effects mean we don't get out of this quickly."The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that global growth will inevitably take a hit even if the ceasefire holds, citing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz as a persistent drag, pushing up energy costs and inflation. "It's clear we're not going back to the Goldilocks scenario," said Brian Arcese, portfolio manager at Foord Asset Management, referring to a scenario of stable growth and low inflation. The longer the strait remains closed, the greater the risk to the global economy, he said, although the actual extent of the damage can shift on "a daily and weekly basis." Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

The nominee to lead the Fed is an AI optimist who counts tech titans Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen among his friends. View More

watch nowVIDEO9:2409:24Kevin Warsh's ties to tech bros: Here's what to knowSquawk Box With his penchant for suits, ties and sweater vests, Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh doesn’t share the rumpled look of many of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurs he calls friends. But they still count him as one of their own. “You wouldn't be hanging out with us if you were as normal as you claim to be,” Palantir CEO Alex Karp told Warsh on a podcast in 2022.If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh wouldn’t just be the wealthiest Fed chair in history, he would also be the most tech savvy and the closest to the tech bro community to ever sit in the office. Warsh's connection to Karp and other titans of Silicon Valley such as reclusive PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Yahoo founder Jerry Yang and prominent venture capitalist Marc Andreessen go back decades — to college at Stanford and to investments made alongside some of them beginning soon after Warsh resigned as a Fed governor in 2011. Those connections and his focus on tech investments have shaped Warsh's almost evangelical view of how new technologies will transform the U.S. economy — a view that could change how the Fed runs monetary policy and what rate policies it pursues. From Alan Greenspan to Ben Bernanke to Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, transitions to new Fed chairs have been marked mostly by continuity. With his long-running critiques of current Fed policy — from the balance sheet to communications to the data used to set policy — Warsh's tenure could mark a significant break in that long stretch. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly poses with former U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh on the sidelines of a monetary policy conference at Stanford University's Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California, U.S., May 9, 2025. Ann Saphir | Reuters The former Fed governor’s voluminous 69-page financial disclosure document showed vast wealth reaching to at least nearly $200 million and potentially far more. In addition to marquee investments in companies including Palantir that Warsh made while working for investor Stanley Druckenmiller, Warsh’s sprawling holdings include stakes in frontier and riskier startups ranging from crypto to artificial intelligence to a company that produces a robotic barista that will automatically serve a latte, a lemonade or a premium jasmine milk tea from a booth in the San Francisco airport.“We’re probably on the front end of use cases,” Warsh said of AI in May 2025. “In the future — probably not that far from now, probably a year, year and a half from now — we’re all going to have these devices in our pockets like we do, but they are going to be our agents and they are going to go off and check in on our flights and see what the traffic is like and make sure the Uber is here to get us without a single instruction by us.” watch nowVIDEO3:5603:56How Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh made his fortuneThe Fed Warsh has already said that vision of the future should shape the Fed’s monetary policy."Everything technology touches gets cheaper,” Warsh said in another 2025 interview. If a central banker waits until the data shows an increase in productivity, he said, “my view is you're backward looking, you're going to be late. You're not going to realize the country is able to have non-inflationary growth faster.”Warsh went on to say, “You're going to have to make a bet,’’ like he’s done with some of his tech investments. He compared the current moment with the monumental decision of Greenspan in the mid-1990s to not raise rates at the dawn of the internet revolution.Warsh became friendly with Thiel, Andreessen and Yang at Stanford in the early '90s. When Warsh was president of the student association, he worked with Thiel, who was the comptroller. After Warsh left the Fed in 2011— in part over objections about the growth of the balance sheet – he joined Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office. Druckenmiller had recently closed his hedge fund and opened his well-funded family office. While already a legendary investor, including in technology, Druckenmiller focused mostly on public tech companies and had yet to venture into private and early-stage investments.“Stan didn't have large positions in private companies in the old version of Duquesne with outside money,” Warsh recounted in a third 2025 interview. “I happen to have, in some sense, grown up with ... some of the people who would end up being this new generation of leaders in venture capital. Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen come to mind, who have been friends from my days in college.”Warsh has also invested alongside tech titans such as David Sacks and Michael Ovitz. Read more CNBC politics coverageKevin Warsh would be the first tech bro Fed chair. How Silicon Valley shaped himU.S. struck, seized Iranian-flagged ship Touska in Gulf of Oman, Trump saysThree things to know about FISA Section 702: Congress passes short-term extension of controversial surveillance program A key question for a Warsh Fed will be how much access he provides to tech moguls. Andreessen, for example, has been highly critical of financial regulation, particularly regarding cryptocurrency. But he’s also singled out the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Dodd-Frank 2010 banking overhaul more broadly. Warsh has pledged to divest himself of many of his holdings, including those in the venture capital world. Yet he will still know that decisions he makes could benefit — or harm — his former partners in specific industries.(Powell, who also has wealth in the tens of millions of dollars, came from the private equity world and had considerable contacts in finance before becoming chair.) Stanley Druckenmiller and Kevin Warsh attend the annual Allen and Co. Sun Valley Media and Technology Conference at the Sun Valley Resort in Sun Valley, Idaho, U.S., on July 9, 2025.David A. Grogan | CNBC Warsh shares with many of his fellow tech investors a strongly free market, anti-regulatory view of the world. Among his longest-running concerns about the Fed has been the $6.7 trillion balance sheet — inflated by trillions during the pandemic. Warsh believes the Fed’s supersized asset purchases have unnecessarily injected liquidity into the economy, pumping up the stock market, giving license to Congress and the administration to boost deficit spending, and giving the Fed a much larger footprint in the U.S. economy, crowding out private investment. Criticisms of Jerome Powell That is the milder edge of a much sharper litany of criticisms Warsh has levied at Powell and the current Fed. Warsh, who lost out on the top job to Powell in the first Trump term, has personally attacked Powell. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed last year, he wrote, “Inflation is a choice, and the Fed’s track record under Chairman Jerome Powell is one of unwise choices.” Warsh’s critics see his shots at Powell as transparent posturing for President Donald Trump’s favor. Still, it’s worth recalling that Warsh as early as 2021 pushed back against the Fed’s narrative that the pandemic inflation surge was, as Powell notoriously described it, “transitory.”Warsh believed Powell had made a grave error in signing the Fed up to a new long-term strategy document that he said moved away from preemptive rate tightening. “Jerome Powell’s Fed believes the party is just getting started and won’t remove the punch bowl until the fun is in full swing and the neighbors know it,” he wrote in a 2021 op-ed.Warsh ended up being not only right about the persistence of inflation, but also the strategy. The Fed would amend the document in 2025 to a more balanced approach. Powell has bristled at Warsh's critiques Warsh has also called for the Fed to use new models, a potential reference to bringing new technologies and big data into the Fed's forecasting process. But it's a call that elicited a backhanded retort from Powell at one of his news conferences. While not responding directly to Warsh, Powell said comments that the Fed is backward-looking and doesn't incorporate future productivity gains "just don't make sense."“If it’s a question of using better models, bring them on,” he said. “Where are they? We’ll take them. But I think we certainly are in contact with anybody who does economic modeling, and we’re always looking to do better at that.”The debate about productivity may be an early flashpoint for a Warsh Fed. Warsh endorses the most upbeat promises of productivity from AI for the broader economy. He believes the Fed should incorporate those expected benefits into policy now, reducing rates to account for the potential downward pressure productivity growth can exert on inflation, and offsetting a potential tightening from reducing the balance sheet. That call for lower rates dovetails with Trump's desires.Some of his prospective colleagues are already pushing back.“It’s not clear to me how the balance of this is going to weigh out, and I think right now it’s too soon to say what it’s going to mean,” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said in an April 15 interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box."A major concern is that, at the onset, AI is mostly an investment in capital equipment and infrastructure — pushing up prices and rates by increasing demand for resources. It could be years before AI productivity hits the broader economy and allows for higher growth with lower inflation and lower rates. From peddling pencils to the big time Democrats may try at Tuesday’s hearing to make an issue of Warsh’s elite pedigree. He has gone from selling pencils at upstate New York’s Saratoga Race Course in high school to owning a horse racing stable. His critics may ask if he remembers what it’s like to be a little guy.AI has been a powerful force behind the stock market, which hit records last week. Warsh’s critics will likely contend AI could also hurt workers’ livelihoods by lessening the need for white-collar jobs like attorneys and accountants that have been a reliable pathway into the middle class in recent decades. And yet the chorus from the tech world, adopted by Warsh, is a consistent theme of the necessity of little to no regulation of AI so the U.S. can remain in the global lead.And Warsh may respond, as he has before, that inequality has run rampant under the tenure of Powell and his recent predecessors. 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